Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Center for Public Leadership) - Softcover

Bazerman, Max H.; Watkins, Michael

Softcover

ISBN 10: 1422122875 ISBN 13: 9781422122877

Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press, 2008

Synopsis

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss the warning signs. This book shows why such predictable surprises place us all at risk and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes.

About this title

About the Author:

Max Bazerman is a professor at HBS and is a huge name in negotiation and decision-making. He has written classic books on these subjects (Negotiating Rationally, Judgment in Managerial Decision-Making), and his name lends significant credibility to the authors’ argument.

From Booklist:

Bazerman and Watkins, faculty at the Harvard Business School, define predictable surprises as "an event or set of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." They cite as examples the tragedy of 9/11 and Enron's collapse. Insisting theirs is not 20/20 hindsight, they explain how many disasters are preceded by clear warning signals that leaders miss or ignore. Characteristics of predictable surprises include when leaders know a problem exists and that problem does not solve itself and gets worse, the human tendency to maintain the status quo, and the reality of a small vocal minority (special interests) that benefit from inaction. Future predictable surprises include government subsidies, global warming, government's ignoring future financial obligations in medical costs and retirement commitments, and the large obligations airlines have in frequent flyer miles. This is an excellent book for library patrons in both the public and private sectors. Mary Whaley
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About this edition

• Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
• Publication date: 2008
• ISBN 10: 1422122875
• ISBN 13: 9781422122877
• Binding: Paperback
• Number of pages: 318