In Defense Of Public Opinion Polling - Hardcover

Warren, Kenneth F

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0813397936 ISBN 13: 9780813397931

Publisher: Westview Press, 2001

Synopsis

What do we really know about public opinion polls? Are they as flawed as conventional wisdom implies? How accurate are the polls, really? How can we spot a bad poll? Why do politicians and journalists have a love-hate relationship with polls? How do polls help us interpret history? Why has public opinion polling become so popular in other countries?In the 2000 national elections 100 million was spent on campaign polling alone. A 5 billion industry from Gallup to Zogby, public opinion polling is growing rapidly with the explosion of consumer-oriented market research, political and media polling, and controversial Internet polling. By many measures—from editorial cartoons to bumper stickers—we hate pollsters and their polls. We think of polling as hopelessly flawed, invasive of our privacy, and just plain annoying. At times we even argue that polling is illegal, unconstitutional, and downright un-American. Yet we crave the information polling provides. What do other Americans think about gun control? School vouchers? Airline performance? Or the Yankees' chances for winning another World Series? Pollsters consult with jurists on the best venue for a controversial criminal trial. They advise car manufacturers on which paint colors to use for a new model. They guide city councils in how to divide public funding across competing priorities.Ken Warren closes this book with an especially candid report card on how 13 major pollsters fared in predicting the November 2000 presidential contest and how pollsters fared in making 136 projections in congressional and gubernatorial races across the United States. Despite the wild swings of the political season most pollsters were remarkably accurate in forecasting the results. Based on extensive interviews with major pollsters and a wide examination of current polling practices and results, In Defense of Public Opinion Polling argues strongly that well conducted scientific polls are not only accurate, but are valuable tools in understanding society and promoting its own best interests.

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Review:

Perhaps it was one too many snide comments about "stupid polls," or just a growing dismay over Americans' cynical attitude toward public opinion polling, but Ken Warren decided it was time to defend his job. Sure, admits the president of the Warren Poll, it's easy to attack pollsters and polls: there is no such thing as a methodologically perfect poll, and the possible shortcomings and contaminations are endless. On the other hand, polls are remarkably accurate, and Warren has the data to prove it.

His defense can be summed up this way: pollsters measure public opinion better than any competitor and are a valuable tool for recording and interpreting moments in history (like the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal), understanding the present (even Alan Greenspan consults economic surveys before raising interest rates), and planning for the future (local, state, and federal governments regularly poll constituents before implementing big-ticket projects).

Warren explains the elements that make good polls really good and points the finger at bad polls that either "really 'stink'," such as push polls, or are "ill-fated," such as the Nielsen ratings. He also explains why politicians and the media love (and sometimes hate) opinion polls and depend on them for their survival. (In other words, don't believe it when politicians say they don't pay attention to the polls. While President Bush may not jump at every poll-generated statistic like his predecessor, he would be a fool not to pay attention.)

Warren's favorite defense of opinion polling is that it advances democracy because it promotes popular government, and he looks at its growing use in democratic countries and its failure in totalitarian ones. Occasionally, Warren is blinded by his own enthusiasm (since when have historians been able to understand election results only by using polls results, and how many people really use them to "fit in"?),and he is clearly a better pollster than writer. Still, were the readers of this book to be polled on how well it does its job, the majority would give it a thumbs-up. --Lesley Reed

About the Author:

Ken Warren, President of The Warren Poll for over two decades, has polled for the media, government, private clients, and politicians, including House Minority Leader, Richard Gephardt. He has served as a political analyst for local, national, and international media for over 20 years, appearing in news sources such as The New York Times , The London Times , The Wall Street Journal , and The New Republic , and on ABC, CNN, CBS, Fox, MSNBC, PBS, CBC, BBC, NPR, and Swedish television. He is the author of many other works, including Administrative Law In The Political System . Ken lives in St. Louis with his wife, Annette, a novelist, and teaches public opinion polling at Saint Louis University.

About this edition

• Publisher: Westview Press
• Publication date: 2001
• ISBN 10: 0813397936
• ISBN 13: 9780813397931
• Binding: Hardcover
• Number of pages: 368