Canadian Economic Forecasting: In a World Where All's Unsure - Hardcover

Daub, Mervin

9780773506213: Canadian Economic Forecasting: In a World Where All's Unsure

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0773506217 ISBN 13: 9780773506213

Publisher: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1987

Daub discusses both the rationale for the practice of forecasting and the methods commonly used, and traces the history of aggregate economic forecasting in Canada, examining the structure, conduct, and performance of the present forecasting "industry," particularly the nature of demand and supply, pricing and promotion considerations, and profits and efficiency. He also examinines factors which influence the accuracy of forecasts and reviews the record of Canadian forecasting. In the last chapters Daub considers public policy aspects of economic forecasting. Should forecasters be held liable for inaccurate forecasts? Should they be subject to regulation? He concludes by observing that the practice of forecasting is inextricably linked to our sense of time, as is the very different exercise of time-keeping with clocks or watches. It is socially complex, highly institutionalized, and informed by the many and varied visions we carry of the world. Through it we attempt to organize and shape our individual and collective futures. Until uncertainty is eliminated from human affairs, forecasting will continue to be a necessary social practice, despite recurring bouts of cynicism as to its worth.

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Review:

"A fascinating study of an "industry" that is virtually unique." R.G. Bodkin, Department of Economics, University of Ottawa "should be of direct utility to those interested in macroeconomic forecasts and their role in society...This book could serve to solidify the base of the industry and assist policy makers and industry participants in better understanding the issues to be confronted in the coming years." M.C. McCracken, Informetrica Limited

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